
A sourced record of widely reported crash warnings since 2021 and disclosed positions since his last 13F, scored against the market. Each entry links to its evidence; this is not a complete private portfolio.
Pure Power Picks scores 12 of Michael Burry's widely reported market warnings since 2021, as of the October 30, 2026 close. The S&P 500 (SPY) is higher today than on the day 9 of them went public, and up 77.6% since his first, on June 15, 2021. Of 35 scored positions reported since his last 13F, 23 have moved his way since they became public and 12 have not.
Burry has said he is "now a meme for the number of times I have called a crash," and that many crash calls pinned on him were reporters misreading his filings. So this list keeps the two apart: his own words, and 13F filings the press read as bets. It covers widely reported warnings, not every post.
| Date | Warning | SPY 12 months later | Worst close in 12 months | SPY since |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | “The stock market is quite obviously in its first stage of grief, denial. Per 2000 and 2008, this stage lasts 6-9 months.”His wordsX · 24/7 Wall St via Yahoo | Not yet | -3.0% so far | -3.2% |
| Sep 28, 2026 | “Fundamentally, I am moving timelines up.”His wordsSubstack · CNBC | Not yet | -1.3% so far | -1.5% |
| Aug 4, 2026 | “I continue to believe it is possible we are near a major top, and possible a 1987-type fall, but the S&P 500 making new highs likely will bring new money into the market.”His wordsSubstack · CNBC | Not yet | -2.2% so far | -2.2% |
| May 8, 2026 | “Feeling like the last months of the 1999-2000 bubble.”His wordsSubstack · CNBC | Not yet | -1.7% so far | +2.2% |
| Dec 2, 2025 | Said that in past bubbles, stocks peaked before the capital spending was even halfway done.His wordsPodcast · CNBC | Not yet | -7.3% so far | +10.6% |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Puts on 5M Palantir shares ($912.1M notional) and 1M Nvidia shares ($186.6M notional).13F, as the press read itSEC 13F, Q3 2025He said the Palantir puts cost about $9.2M, not $912M. | Not yet | -7.5% so far | +10.3% |
| Oct 30, 2025 | “Sometimes, we see bubbles. Sometimes, there is something to do about it. Sometimes, the only winning move is not to play.”His wordsX · Bloomberg via AOL | +11.2% | -7.0% | +10.9% |
| Aug 14, 2023 | Puts on SPY ($886.6M notional) and QQQ ($738.8M notional), about $1.6B in all.13F, as the press read itSEC 13F, Q2 2023Gone by the next 13F. He never explained them, and a filing shows positions, not reasons. | +21.3% | -8.4% | +68.3% |
| Jan 31, 2023 | “Sell.”His wordsX, deleted · Yahoo FinanceTwo months later, on Mar 30, 2023, he posted: "I was wrong to say sell." | +18.8% | -5.2% | +85.5% |
| May 3, 2022 | Said the S&P 500 could fall to about 1,862, roughly 15% below its March 2020 low.His wordsX, deleted · Business InsiderThe post's exact wording was not preserved. | -2.0% | -14.4% | +81.1% |
| Jun 17, 2021 | “All hype/speculation is doing is drawing in retail before the mother of all crashes.”His wordsX, deleted · Benzinga | -13.3% | -13.3% | +78.7% |
| Jun 15, 2021 | “Greatest Speculative Bubble of All Time in All Things. By two orders of magnitude.”His wordsX, deleted · Fortune | -10.7% | -11.9% | +77.6% |
SPY closing prices, split adjusted, dividends not included. "Not yet" means 12 months have not passed. During market hours the last column uses a price delayed 15 minutes.
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Scion stopped filing 13Fs after the quarter ended Sep 30, 2025. Everything newer comes from his own posts on X and press coverage of his paid Substack. We use the earliest public report we have verified. The baseline is that date's completed close (the prior session for a non-trading day), not an executable entry price. Reported exits end the comparison at the exit report's close. These are stock-price comparisons, not his profit; his actual fills, sizes and full trading history are unavailable. New disclosures are reviewed before they are added.
| Stock | His side | Public baseline | Then | Latest / exit | Since | His way? | Latest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBE Adobe | Bullish · Long | Apr 13, 2026 | $240.11 | $252.66Nov 2, 2026 | +5.2% | ✓ His way | Oct 11, 2026: Reported still held (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| BIRK Birkenstock | Bullish · Shares | Aug 26, 2026 | $36.18 | $35.37Nov 2, 2026 | -2.3% | ✗ Against him | Oct 11, 2026: Reported still held (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| CAT Caterpillar | Bearish · Puts | Aug 4, 2026 | $876.54 | $612.00Nov 2, 2026 | -30.2% | ✓ His way | Oct 11, 2026: Reported December 2027 puts (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| DECK Deckers Outdoor | Bullish · Shares | Oct 5, 2026 | $80.21 | $84.97Nov 2, 2026 | +5.9% | ✓ His way | Oct 11, 2026: Reported still held (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| ERO Ero Copper | Bullish · Shares | Sep 21, 2026 | $34.70 | $29.26Nov 2, 2026 | -15.7% | ✗ Against him | Oct 11, 2026: Reported still held (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| FISV Fiserv | Bullish · Shares | Apr 15, 2026 | $61.29 | $51.71Nov 2, 2026 | -15.6% | ✗ Against him | Oct 11, 2026: Reported still held (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| FMCC Freddie Mac | Bullish · Common shares | Dec 8, 2025 | $10.75 | $3.68Oct 9, 2026 | -65.8% | ✗ Against him | Oct 11, 2026: Reported exiting common shares for junior preferred stock (Oninvest)Reported exit by Oct 11, 2026. Excluded from current score.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| FNMA Fannie Mae | Bullish · Common shares | Dec 8, 2025 | $11.44 | $4.21Oct 5, 2026 | -63.2% | ✗ Against him | Oct 11, 2026: Common share exit reaffirmed; exposure moved to preferred shares (Oninvest)Reported exit by Oct 5, 2026. Excluded from current score.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| GSE preferred Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac junior preferred | Bullish · Junior preferred shares | Oct 11, 2026 | Not scored | Not scored | Oct 11, 2026: Reported buying five junior preferred series (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026The five preferred series are not identified in the reviewed public report. FNMA and FMCC common prices do not measure these holdings.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. | ||
| HCA HCA Healthcare | Bullish · Shares | Jun 9, 2026 | $374.90 | $466.46Nov 2, 2026 | +24.4% | ✓ His way | Oct 11, 2026: Reported still held (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| MET MetLife | Bearish · Puts | Sep 28, 2026 | $95.82 | $100.77Nov 2, 2026 | +5.2% | ✗ Against him | Oct 11, 2026: Reported January 2029 puts (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| MOH Molina Healthcare | Bullish · Shares | Nov 3, 2025 | $147.03 | $206.86Nov 2, 2026 | +40.7% | ✓ His way | Oct 11, 2026: Reported still held (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| ORCL Oracle | Bearish · Puts | Jan 9, 2026 | $198.52 | $119.23Nov 2, 2026 | -39.9% | ✓ His way | Oct 11, 2026: Reported December 2027 puts (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026The record includes closing one option position and opening a new short. The displayed stock move is not a continuous trade return.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| PLTR Palantir | Bearish · Puts | Nov 3, 2025 | $207.18 | $181.19Nov 2, 2026 | -12.5% | ✓ His way | Oct 11, 2026: Reported September 2027 puts after closing the stock short (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| QQQ Nasdaq 100 fund (QQQ) | Bearish · Puts | Apr 23, 2026 | $651.42 | $684.06Nov 2, 2026 | +5.0% | ✗ Against him | Oct 11, 2026: Nasdaq 100 puts reported expiring April 2027 (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF | Bearish · Puts | Oct 11, 2026 | $603.33 | $510.26Nov 2, 2026 | -15.4% | ✓ His way | Oct 11, 2026: Reported June 2027 puts (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
| TPW.AX Temple & Webster | Bullish · Shares | Aug 31, 2026 | A$4.81 | A$5.46Nov 2, 2026 close | +13.5% | ✓ His way | Oct 11, 2026: Reported still held (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026Yahoo Finance closing prices. Currency: AUD.Issuer confirms ASX:TPWBurry holding reported as ASX:TPWASX ordinary-share benchmark in Australian dollars. The reporting identifies ASX:TPW; Burry's execution venue and currency return are not disclosed. No USD conversion.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| VEEV Veeva Systems | Bullish · Shares with covered calls | Apr 13, 2026 | $158.45 | $308.42Nov 2, 2026 | +94.6% | ✓ His way | Oct 11, 2026: Sold November calls covering the share holding (Oninvest)Last reported held Oct 11, 2026Covered calls cap upside. A common share price change does not measure this combined strategy.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| 1211.HK BYD | Bullish · Shares | Oct 5, 2026 | HK$74.10 | HK$70.45Nov 2, 2026 close | -4.9% | ✗ Against him | Oct 5, 2026: Reported opening a share position (Stocktwits)Last reported held Oct 5, 2026Yahoo Finance closing prices. Currency: HKD.BYD investor relations: share listingsBurry holding reported as 1211.HKHong Kong H-share benchmark in Hong Kong dollars, as identified in reporting. This is not a US ADR price or Burry's USD return.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
| JD JD.com | Bullish · Shares and calls | Aug 13, 2026 | $29.30 | $26.44Nov 2, 2026 | -9.8% | ✗ Against him | Oct 5, 2026: Added 2029 calls (Stocktwits)Last reported held Oct 5, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| LULU Lululemon | Bullish · Shares | Nov 3, 2025 | $165.47 | $93.14Oct 5, 2026 | -43.7% | ✗ Against him | Oct 5, 2026: Sold shares for a tax loss and bought Deckers as a temporary substitute (Stocktwits)Reported exit by Oct 5, 2026. Excluded from current score.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| SFM Sprouts Farmers Market | Bullish · Calls | Jul 2, 2026 | $89.94 | $55.24Nov 2, 2026 | -38.6% | ✗ Against him | Oct 5, 2026: Replaced direct shares with long dated calls (Stocktwits)Last reported held Oct 5, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| ZTS Zoetis | Bullish · Calls | May 18, 2026 | $77.72 | $82.57Nov 2, 2026 | +6.2% | ✓ His way | Oct 5, 2026: Replaced direct shares with long dated calls (Stocktwits)Last reported held Oct 5, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| CRWV CoreWeave | Bearish · Stock short | Aug 31, 2026 | $84.89 | $85.07Sep 28, 2026 | +0.2% | ✗ Against him | Sep 28, 2026: Covered the stock short (24/7 Wall St)Reported exit by Sep 28, 2026. Excluded from current score.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| MU Micron | Bearish · Puts | Jul 2, 2026 | $975.56 | $836.54Nov 2, 2026 | -14.3% | ✓ His way | Sep 28, 2026: Replaced the short with puts near a $500 strike, June 2027 (24/7 Wall St)Last reported held Sep 28, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| NBIS Nebius | Bearish · Puts | Aug 6, 2026 | $189.88 | $142.13Nov 2, 2026 | -25.1% | ✓ His way | Sep 28, 2026: Replaced the short stock with puts (24/7 Wall St)Last reported held Sep 28, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| NVDA Nvidia | Bearish · Puts | Nov 3, 2025 | $206.88 | $203.57Nov 2, 2026 | -1.6% | ✓ His way | Sep 28, 2026: Holds puts after replacing all short stock (24/7 Wall St)Last reported held Sep 28, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| SOXX iShares Semiconductor ETF | Bearish · Puts | Apr 23, 2026 | $441.00 | $455.59Nov 2, 2026 | +3.3% | ✗ Against him | Sep 28, 2026: Replaced the short stock with puts (24/7 Wall St)Last reported held Sep 28, 2026Puts were closed in August while a stock short remained; later puts were reported. The displayed ETF move is not a continuous trade return.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| QXO QXO common shares | Bullish · Shares | Sep 21, 2026 | $12.20 | $11.75Nov 2, 2026 | -3.7% | ✗ Against him | Sep 21, 2026: Reported owning common shares alongside preferred stock (Stocktwits)Last reported held Sep 21, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
| QXO.PRB QXO 5.5% Series B preferred | Bullish · Preferred shares | Sep 21, 2026 | $39.02 | $34.88Oct 30, 2026 close | -10.6% | ✗ Against him | Sep 21, 2026: Reported holding mandatory convertible preferred shares (Stocktwits)Last reported held Sep 21, 2026Yahoo Finance closing prices. Currency: USD.QXO SEC listing and depositary-share termsNYSE Series B depositary share, each representing 1/20 of a preferred share. Price-only return excludes preferred dividends.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
| FLUT Flutter | Bullish · Long | Jul 8, 2026 | $111.32 | $100.56Sep 11, 2026 | -9.7% | ✗ Against him | Sep 11, 2026: Reported selling the entire holding (Stocktwits)Reported exit by Sep 11, 2026. Excluded from current score.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| BBW Build A Bear Workshop | Bullish · Shares | Aug 27, 2026 | $28.44 | $29.66Nov 2, 2026 | +4.3% | ✓ His way | Sep 9, 2026: Listed among long holdings (Stocktwits)Last reported held Sep 9, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| MELI MercadoLibre | Bullish · Long | May 8, 2026 | $1,632.52 | $1,694.71Nov 2, 2026 | +3.8% | ✓ His way | Sep 9, 2026: Listed among long holdings (Stocktwits)Last reported held Sep 9, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| PYPL PayPal | Bullish · Long | Apr 15, 2026 | $49.57 | $58.54Nov 2, 2026 | +18.1% | ✓ His way | Sep 9, 2026: Listed among long holdings (Stocktwits)Last reported held Sep 9, 2026Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| AMAT Applied Materials | Bearish · Short | Jul 3, 2026 | $603.04 | $534.54Aug 13, 2026 | -11.4% | ✓ His way | Aug 13, 2026: Reported covering the stock short (Stocktwits)Reported exit by Aug 13, 2026. Excluded from current score.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| TSLA Tesla | Bearish · Short | Dec 2, 2025 | $429.24 | $339.96Aug 13, 2026 | -20.8% | ✓ His way | Aug 13, 2026: Reported covering the stock short (Stocktwits)Reported exit by Aug 13, 2026. Excluded from current score.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| DKNG DraftKings | Bullish · Long | Jul 8, 2026 | $27.17 | $21.76Aug 5, 2026 | -19.9% | ✗ Against him | Aug 5, 2026: Sold the shares while adding to Flutter (Stocktwits)Reported exit by Aug 5, 2026. Excluded from current score.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
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| MSCI MSCI | Bullish · Shares | Apr 23, 2026 | $598.01 | $636.67Nov 2, 2026 | +6.5% | ✓ His way | Apr 23, 2026: Reported adding to an existing holding (Stocktwits)Last reported Apr 23, 2026; current holding not confirmedEarliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
| MSFT Microsoft | Bullish · Long | Apr 23, 2026 | $415.75 | $514.51Nov 2, 2026 | +23.8% | ✓ His way | Apr 23, 2026: Reported a new position (Stocktwits)Last reported Apr 23, 2026; current holding not confirmedEarliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
| ADSK Autodesk | Bullish · Shares | Apr 13, 2026 | $227.14 | $259.01Nov 2, 2026 | +14.0% | ✓ His way | Apr 13, 2026: Reported buying shares (Stocktwits)Last reported Apr 13, 2026; current holding not confirmedEarliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
| BRKRP Bruker 6.375% Series A preferred | Bullish · Preferred shares | Nov 3, 2025 | $309.12 | $422.39Oct 30, 2026 close | +36.6% | ✓ His way | Nov 3, 2025: 13F reported the preferred holding (SEC 13F, Q3 2025)Last reported Nov 3, 2025; current holding not confirmedYahoo Finance closing prices. Currency: USD.Bruker SEC preferred listingNasdaq Series A mandatory convertible preferred share. Price-only return excludes preferred dividends. Current ownership is not confirmed after the last filing.Earliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
| HAL Halliburton | Bullish · Calls | Nov 3, 2025 | $27.18 | $34.92Nov 2, 2026 | +28.5% | ✓ His way | Nov 3, 2025: 13F showed calls on 2,500,000 shares (SEC 13F, Q3 2025)Last reported Nov 3, 2025; current holding not confirmedEarliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
| PFE Pfizer | Bullish · Calls | Nov 3, 2025 | $24.66 | $30.97Nov 2, 2026 | +25.6% | ✓ His way | Nov 3, 2025: 13F showed calls on 6,000,000 shares (SEC 13F, Q3 2025)Last reported Nov 3, 2025; current holding not confirmedEarliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
| SLM SLM Corp | Bullish · Shares | Nov 3, 2025 | $27.25 | $18.02Nov 2, 2026 | -33.9% | ✗ Against him | Nov 3, 2025: 13F showed 480,054 shares (SEC 13F, Q3 2025)Last reported Nov 3, 2025; current holding not confirmedEarliest verified report; an earlier disclosure may exist. |
"His way" means the stock moved in the direction of his bet: down for a bearish position, up for a bullish one. Options can lose money even when the stock moves the right way, if it moves too little or too late.
| Position | Type | Shares | Value reported | Share of filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palantir PLTR | Puts | 5,000,000 | $912.1M notional | 66.0% |
| Nvidia NVDA | Puts | 1,000,000 | $186.6M notional | 13.5% |
| Pfizer PFE | Calls | 6,000,000 | $152.9M notional | 11.1% |
| Halliburton HAL | Calls | 2,500,000 | $61.5M notional | 4.5% |
| Molina Healthcare MOH | Shares | 125,000 | $23.9M | 1.7% |
| Lululemon LULU | Shares | 100,000 | $17.8M | 1.3% |
| SLM Corp SLM | Shares | 480,054 | $13.3M | 1.0% |
| Bruker 6.375% Series A preferred | Preferred | 48,334 | $13.1M | 1.0% |
Options are shown at notional value, the value of the shares they control, not what they cost. Burry said the Palantir puts cost about $9.2 million, not $912 million. A 13F never shows short stock. Source: SEC 13F, Q3 2025. Every Scion 13F on EDGAR.
His Substack. Most posts are paid, so we list titles and links only.
This free Michael Burry tracker follows The Big Short investor in public: his widely reported crash warnings since 2021, scored against the S&P 500, and the stocks he has bet on and against since his last 13F, with each stock's move since it became public. For the full story of his career, his net worth and his bets against Nvidia and Palantir, read Michael Burry: The Big Short, His AI Bets and His Crash Calls, Scored. Last updated November 2, 2026.
Two things. First, his widely reported market warnings since 2021, each scored against what the S&P 500 (SPY) did afterward. Second, a reviewed record of positions reported since his last 13F. Each entry links to its source. This is not a complete record of his private portfolio.
We take SPY's close on the day each warning became public and measure three things: SPY 12 months later, the worst close inside those 12 months, and SPY today. A warning in his own words is marked separately from a 13F filing the press read as a bet, because Burry says many crash calls pinned on him were reporters misreading his filings.
Scion Asset Management's last 13F covered the quarter ended September 30, 2025. Since then, positions come from his own posts on X and from press coverage of his paid Substack, Cassandra Unchained. We never copy paid posts; each line links to the article or post it came from.
No. It means the stock moved in the direction of his bet since it became public: down for a bearish position, up for a bullish one. His actual fills, position sizes and full trading history are unavailable, and options can lose money even when the stock moves the right way.
The newest warning and the newest move are at the top of each table, and the summary above shows the date of each. The page refreshes every minute during market hours.
Prices refresh automatically. New disclosures are flagged for review and added after their source and instrument are checked. A public-by date is the earliest report we have verified, not proof that no earlier disclosure exists.
They remain in the history, end at the completed close on the reported exit date, and are excluded from the current score. That benchmark is not the price he actually traded. Unknown instruments remain visible without a guessed stock-price score.
US common-stock prices use split-adjusted Polygon closes and quotes delayed about 15 minutes during US market hours. Selected preferred and overseas instruments use free Yahoo Finance closing prices, refreshed after each local exchange closes. Those rows show USD, Australian dollars or Hong Kong dollars; comparisons exclude dividends and currency conversion.
No. Pure Power Picks is not affiliated with Michael Burry, Scion Asset Management or Cassandra Unchained. The tracker is built from his public posts, SEC filings and press coverage.
No. The tracker is educational and informational only, and nothing on it is a recommendation to buy or sell any security.